TASI · 8230

ALRAJHI TAKAFUL

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Insurance equity DCF

Models Al Rajhi Takaful’s shareholder earnings after zakat, less capital retained for growth. The June bonus shares are already reflected in the denominator. Insurance investments and policy liabilities remain inside accounting equity.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: FY2025 SAR 454.981m + H1 2026 SAR 207.837m − H1 2025 SAR 202.365m = SAR 460.453m for the trailing 12 months. June accounting equity is SAR 2,780.088m and issued shares are 200m after the bonus issue. Earnings are reported, not normalized.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative 3% starting book growth, fading to 2.5%. Retained earnings fund this growth; it is not a premium forecast or an independently estimated regulatory-capital requirement.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

SAR 460.453m reported trailing profit / SAR 2,780.088m closing equity, about 16.563%. Not reported ROE on average equity or normalized underwriting profit. Investment and insurance-finance movements remain in earnings.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative 11.5% long-run book return equals the required return. The starting 16.563% return fades across 10 years; no permanent excess return is assumed. This is a scenario choice, not a company forecast.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative 2.5% perpetual nominal book growth, below the 11.5% terminal return and discount rate. It does not imply a declared dividend or a forecast of inflation.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE16.49 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE37.23%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings409.12M SARModeled shareholder cash320.18M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · -11.15%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM · REPORTED SHAREHOLDER PROFIT · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows2,069.75

PV of terminal value1,227.79

Common equity value3,297.54

Shares, millions200

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	460.45	83.4	377.05	0.8969	338.16
2028-06-30	458.16	84.31	373.85	0.8044	300.71
2029-06-30	455.07	85.16	369.91	0.7214	266.85
2030-06-30	451.15	85.93	365.22	0.6470	236.3
2031-06-30	446.39	86.64	359.76	0.5803	208.75
2032-06-30	440.76	87.26	353.5	0.5204	183.97
2033-06-30	434.24	87.81	346.43	0.4667	161.69
2034-06-30	426.8	88.27	338.53	0.4186	141.71
2035-06-30	418.43	88.65	329.78	0.3754	123.81
2036-06-30	409.12	88.94	320.18	0.3367	107.81

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Reported TTM shareholder earnings460.45454.981 + 207.837 − 202.365

Accounting common equity2,780.0914,668.237 − 11,888.149

Initial earnings / closing book (%)16.56460.453 ÷ 2,780.088 × 100

Reported TTM zakat charge7.6713.885 + 6.427 − 12.641

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Shareholder profit after zakat	FY2025	454.981	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Shareholder profit for six months	H1 2026	207.837	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative six-month shareholder profit	H1 2025 comparative	202.365	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Closing accounting equityAssets 14,668.237 less liabilities 11,888.149. The primary statement reports retained earnings 230.070; the capital narrative on PDF page 52 says 230.98. We keep the primary statement, whose equity components reconcile.	30 Jun 2026	2,780.088	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary shares after bonus issueSAR 2,000m capital at SAR 10 per share. The SAR 1,000m transfer from retained earnings doubled issued shares; it was not new cash. Uses issued shares including treasury, not an invented post-bonus outstanding count. H1 EPS denominators are restated on page 40.	30 Jun 2026	200	m shares	Page 39 ↗
Treasury-share reserve already deducted from equityAlready included in closing accounting equity. Do not deduct the treasury-share cost a second time or infer the June treasury count from the pre-bonus 2025 purchase.	30 Jun 2026	-35.671	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Restricted statutory deposit, netGross deposit 200 less expected credit loss 0.012. Withdrawal requires Insurance Authority consent. Not extra cash added to the equity value.	30 Jun 2026	199.988	SAR m	Page 38 ↗
Statutory reserveNote 11 on PDF page 39 requires a 20% annual profit transfer until the reserve equals paid-up capital. Accounting book is not a measure of freely distributable solvency surplus.	30 Jun 2026	440.482	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Zakat charge retained in annual earningsThe FY2025 reversal column is a printed dash. The SAR 23.030m reversal belongs to 2024, outside this trailing window; it is not subtracted from TTM profit.	FY2025	13.885	SAR m	Page 81 ↗
Six-month zakat charge	H1 2026	6.427	SAR m	Page 38 ↗
Comparative six-month zakat charge	H1 2025 comparative	12.641	SAR m	Page 38 ↗
Draft 2021–2022 zakat assessment described as providedManagement states the draft additional liability is adequately provided. No second deduction is made. Reviews for 2023–2025 remain open; this does not establish zero further tax risk.	H1 2026 disclosure	8.85	SAR m	Page 38 ↗
Investments related to unit-linked contractsMatched insurance and investment-contract obligations remain on the liability side. These investments are not freely distributable cash or an enterprise-to-equity addition.	30 Jun 2026	8,027.421	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Net insurance service result	H1 2026	200.322	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Net unit-linked investment gainRead with insurance-finance movements, not as a standalone recurring-profit adjustment. The model does not remove only the asset-side gain.	H1 2026	85.137	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Net insurance finance expense	H1 2026	-103.15	SAR m	Page 5 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The 3% starting book growth, 2.5% terminal growth, 10-year horizon, 11.5% required return and 11.5% terminal return are editable scenario choices, not guidance, analyst consensus or a measured cost of equity. The starting return uses reported trailing profit on closing book, not an average-equity ROE.
Reported earnings are not normalized. Investment returns, claim development and insurance-finance movements remain in profit. Unit-linked gains and related liability finance must be considered together; the model does not strip one side or independently forecast claims, asset returns and reserve adequacy.
Accounting equity is not freely distributable capital. Statutory deposits and reserves are restricted. Retained book growth is a simplified capital assumption, not an independently forecast solvency requirement or verified capital surplus.
Uses 200m issued shares at 30 June 2026, including treasury. The bonus transfer moved retained earnings into paid-up capital without new cash. Treasury cost is already deducted from book. FY2025 EPS on the old 100m denominator is not directly comparable with post-bonus EPS. No September share count or live price is asserted.
The primary position statement and capital narrative differ on retained earnings: SAR 230.070m versus SAR 230.98m. We use the primary statement and reconciled total equity. The interim capital note also differs from the formal EGM announcement on the meeting date; neither difference changes the independently reported June share denominator.
The draft 2021–2022 additional zakat is described as adequately provided; it is not deducted again. Ongoing 2023–2025 reviews are not assumed risk-free. No exceptional 2024 zakat reversal is removed from a trailing period that excludes 2024.
Shareholder cash equals modeled earnings less retained capital, not declared dividends. The clean-surplus model does not separately forecast future OCI, capital actions or changes in regulatory requirements. The residual-income check tests arithmetic, not forecast likelihood. June accounts were approved on 3 August 2026 and independently reviewed on 9 August; this is not verification of all later events.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.