TASI · 1080

ANB

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Bank equity DCF

Starts from common equity excluding Tier 1 sukuk and minority interests. Trailing parent earnings are reduced by Tier 1 costs recognized in equity, then projected with explicit capital retention and a residual-income cross-check.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Anchored to TTM ordinary earnings / closing common equity. This is not the reported ROE on average equity; it is the first forecast year’s editable return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE23.22 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE47.74%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings6.08B SARModeled shareholder cash4.7B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 24.4%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows24,266.66

PV of terminal value22,165.76

Common equity value46,432.43

Shares, millions2,000

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	4,884.5	1,295.04	3,589.45	0.9050	3,248.37
2028-06-30	5,015.47	1,309.19	3,706.27	0.8190	3,035.38
2029-06-30	5,147.12	1,322.31	3,824.81	0.7412	2,834.8
2030-06-30	5,279.33	1,334.35	3,944.98	0.6707	2,646.04
2031-06-30	5,411.96	1,345.25	4,066.71	0.6070	2,468.49
2032-06-30	5,544.87	1,354.97	4,189.9	0.5493	2,301.6
2033-06-30	5,677.91	1,363.45	4,314.47	0.4971	2,144.82
2034-06-30	5,810.95	1,370.64	4,440.31	0.4499	1,997.63
2035-06-30	5,943.83	1,376.51	4,567.32	0.4071	1,859.52
2036-06-30	6,076.39	1,381	4,695.39	0.3684	1,730.01

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

TTM parent earnings after recognized Tier 1 costs4,884.5(5,116.238 − 187.411) + (2,782.111 − 247.907) − (2,640.157 − 61.622)

Common book equity excluding Tier 1 and minorities43,168.1652,465.554 − 9,267.500 − 29.899; agrees to reported shareholders’ equity

Initial earnings / closing common book (%)11.32TTM adjusted parent earnings ÷ 43,168.155 × 100; not average-equity ROE

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	FY2025	5,116.238	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk cost recognized in equity	FY2025	187.411	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	H1 2026	2,782.111	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk cost recognized in equity	H1 2026	247.907	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	H1 2025 comparative	2,640.157	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk cost recognized in equity	H1 2025 comparative	61.622	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Total group equity	30 Jun 2026	52,465.554	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk — excluded from common book	30 Jun 2026	9,267.5	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Non-controlling interests — excluded	30 Jun 2026	29.899	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Equity attributable to bank shareholders	30 Jun 2026	43,168.155	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Issued ordinary shares — diluted conventionIncludes treasury shares; not the 1,986m weighted-average EPS denominator. Employee share-plan vesting is not forecast separately.	30 Jun 2026	2,000	m shares	Page 27 ↗
FY impairment reversal on other real estateA reported pre-tax benefit included in earnings; no unsupported after-tax normalization is invented.	FY2025	100	SAR m	Page 7 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Growth, discount rate and terminal return are editable illustrative assumptions, not ANB guidance, a measured cost of equity or analyst consensus.
The FY2025 SAR 100m pre-tax real-estate impairment reversal and discontinued-operation results remain in reported earnings. Their after-tax ordinary-share effects are not independently normalized; the starting return should not be read as a clean run-rate forecast.
The model deducts Tier 1 costs shown in equity, not a deduction reverse-engineered from rounded EPS. The FY2025 EPS/weighted-share disclosures do not exactly reproduce that cost basis; no balancing adjustment is introduced.
Tier 1 capital increased during 2025 and H1 2026. Trailing costs include different outstanding amounts and are not a forecast of the future full-year coupon or issuance cost.
H1 note 21 (physical PDF page 33) explains restated investment, reserve and tax balances and income reclassifications. Use the 2026 report’s comparative earnings, not a mixture of older unadjusted captions.
Accounting book growth is not a regulatory-capital forecast. Deposits and lending stay operating items; future OCI, disposals, capital issuance and employee-share dilution may alter shareholder cash flows.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.