TASI · 4030

Bahri

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Equity cash-flow DCF builder

Bahri’s June statements and full-year cash investment are reviewed below. Freight-rate normalization, fleet replacement and the value of associates still need a documented forecast before a default fair value can be shown.

Valuation date2026-06-30Scenario basis date

Earnings basis & source figures

Reported TTM revenue is SAR 16,988.376m and operating profit is SAR 6,635.921m. These are historical figures, not normalized earnings. Cash investment includes projects under construction; the separate transfer of completed vessels into PPE is non-cash and must not be deducted again.

Review figures and sources ↓

INPUT REVIEW REQUIRED

Start with a documented basis

Official reference figures ↓

Strong reported earnings are not a steady-state forecast. Bahri links the latest improvement to freight rates and vessel utilization, and says the long-term effect remains uncertain.

Missing inputs are not zero-filled. Total equity is not automatically common equity. Review the statements and notes, then enter the adjusted basis.

Common equity · SAR mNormalized annual ordinary earnings · SAR mDiluted ordinary shares · millionsValuation dateReport URL supporting your inputs

I reviewed the source, aligned dates, non-ordinary claims and capital constraints. These are my inputs, not a RUKNasi verification.This positive, steady-state model is not suitable for an unresolved loss-making or negative-equity turnaround.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Reported TTM revenue16,988.3810,346.721 + 11,269.611 − 4,627.956

Reported TTM operating profit — not normalized6,635.922,725.535 + 4,975.223 − 1,064.837

FY2025 cash investment before asset-sale proceeds-4,250.5−293.841 − 3,948.938 − 7.722

H1 2026 cash investment before asset-sale proceeds-615.34−77.641 − 531.787 − 5.909

June carrying debt plus leases less cash and deposits — before other claims6,615.891,013.998 + 10,289.508 + 82.336 + 157.539 − 4,420.495 − 507.000

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	FY2025	10,346.721	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Revenue	H1 2026	11,269.611	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative revenue	H1 2025 comparative	4,627.956	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Operating profit	FY2025	2,725.535	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Operating profit	H1 2026	4,975.223	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative operating profit	H1 2025 comparative	1,064.837	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Parent shareholder profit	H1 2026	4,896.022	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Cash and cash equivalents	30 Jun 2026	4,420.495	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Deposits outside cash equivalentsMaturities exceed three months and are below one year. Do not add the Murabaha deposits already included in cash again.	30 Jun 2026	507	SAR m	Page 21 ↗
Current loans and borrowings	30 Jun 2026	1,013.998	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Non-current loans and borrowingsCarrying amount after SAR 18.372m of prepaid financing. Gross contractual principal is separately presented in note 11.	30 Jun 2026	10,289.508	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Current lease liabilities	30 Jun 2026	82.336	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Non-current lease liabilities	30 Jun 2026	157.539	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Parent shareholder accounting equity	30 Jun 2026	19,007.362	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Non-controlling interests	30 Jun 2026	1,012.129	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Equity-accounted investment in PetredecAccounting value, not independently established fair value. Associate earnings and distributions require separate treatment from consolidated operating cash flows.	30 Jun 2026	2,634.986	SAR m	Page 20 ↗
Liability associated with IMI investmentIncluded in trade and other payables (note 12), not an additional liability to deduct twice.	30 Jun 2026	128.124	SAR m	Page 20 ↗
Employee end-of-service obligations	30 Jun 2026	145.356	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary sharesExact issued shares, not the rounded weighted-average EPS denominator. Later capital events are not verified here.	30 Jun 2026	922.852	m shares	Page 9 ↗
Cash additions to PPE	FY2025	-293.841	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Cash additions to projects under construction	FY2025	-3,948.938	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Cash additions to intangible assets	FY2025	-7.722	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Non-cash transfer of completed projects to PPEA transfer between asset categories, not an additional cash outflow. The cash additions above must not be counted together with this transfer as cash expenditure.	FY2025	5,353.937	SAR m	Page 33 ↗
Cash additions to PPE	H1 2026	-77.641	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Cash additions to projects under construction	H1 2026	-531.787	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Cash additions to intangible assets	H1 2026	-5.909	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Reported operating cash flowAfter finance cost and zakat/tax payments. Not automatically unlevered free cash flow.	H1 2026	3,869.343	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Capital commitmentsProjects under construction and PPE purchases. Cash timing and maintenance-versus-expansion allocation still require review.	30 Jun 2026	925	SAR m	Page 25 ↗

Model boundaries

The June report (page 11) links strong results to improved freight rates and vessel utilization amid regional developments. Most oil vessels operate in the spot market (page 10). Historical TTM profit is not a supported long-term margin or terminal cash-flow base.
Fleet purchases, construction payments, dry-docking and vessel replacement cannot be estimated from the PPE-additions cash line alone. Cash construction payments are included above; completed-project transfers and ROU changes are non-cash. A maintenance/expansion schedule remains to be reviewed.
Associate carrying value is not fair value. Petredec earnings use a two-month reporting lag (page 10); its earnings and cash distributions must not be included both in operating value and an investment add-on. IMI obligations, non-controlling interests, employee benefits and required operating cash also need a consistent equity bridge.
Zakat is provisional; 2024 and 2025 assessments were not received at the reporting date (page 23). Neither a foreign-company tax rate nor the unusually low half-year effective rate has been adopted as a terminal assumption.
The source facts are dated June and the report was authorized on 28 July 2026. No later share event, current market price, forward analyst consensus, freight-rate path or discount rate is certified by this review. The DCF builder remains gated.
Common book and normalized earnings must use the same consolidation scope. Remove non-ordinary claims, discontinued activities and one-off earnings where appropriate.
Use a verified same-date, fully diluted ordinary-share denominator. The current issued share count shown for reference may reflect later bonus issues, capital reductions or rights issues.
Earnings less retained capital is a clean-surplus equity model. It does not separately forecast working capital, acquisitions, OCI or regulatory capital. It is not suitable for unresolved negative-equity or loss-making turnaround cases.
Growth and return defaults are illustrative controls, not analyst forecasts. Dividends and accounting earnings do not by themselves establish distributable free cash flow.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.