TASI · 1050

BSF

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Bank equity DCF

Starts from ordinary shareholders’ book equity and trailing earnings after recognized Tier 1 costs. Capital retained for growth is deducted from earnings; a residual-income calculation checks the arithmetic.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Anchored to TTM ordinary earnings / closing common equity. This is not the reported ROE on average equity; it is the first forecast year’s editable return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE18 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE46.68%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings5.84B SARModeled shareholder cash4.45B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 17.55%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows23,987.02

PV of terminal value21,001.38

Common equity value44,988.41

Shares, millions2,500

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	4,967.3	1,303.7	3,663.6	0.9050	3,315.47
2028-06-30	5,070.04	1,317.95	3,752.1	0.8190	3,072.91
2029-06-30	5,171.69	1,331.15	3,840.54	0.7412	2,846.46
2030-06-30	5,272.08	1,343.27	3,928.81	0.6707	2,635.19
2031-06-30	5,371.06	1,354.25	4,016.81	0.6070	2,438.2
2032-06-30	5,468.45	1,364.03	4,104.43	0.5493	2,254.65
2033-06-30	5,564.1	1,372.56	4,191.54	0.4971	2,083.71
2034-06-30	5,657.85	1,379.81	4,278.04	0.4499	1,924.63
2035-06-30	5,749.53	1,385.71	4,363.81	0.4071	1,776.67
2036-06-30	5,838.97	1,390.23	4,448.74	0.3684	1,639.13

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Reported TTM ordinary earnings after recognized Tier 1 costs4,967.3(5,353.419 − 467.774) + (2,867.807 − 247.695) − (2,740.957 − 202.500)

Ordinary shareholders’ book equity43,456.7951,394.285 − 7,937.500; agrees to reported ordinary equity

Initial earnings / closing common book (%)11.434,967.300 ÷ 43,456.785 × 100; model anchor, not reported average-equity ROE

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	FY2025	5,353.419	SAR m	Page 268 ↗
Tier 1 costs recognized in equity	FY2025	467.774	SAR m	Page 270 ↗
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	H1 2026	2,867.807	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Tier 1 costs recognized in equity	H1 2026	247.695	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Comparative profit attributable to shareholders	H1 2025 comparative	2,740.957	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Comparative Tier 1 costs	H1 2025 comparative	202.5	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Total equity including Tier 1	30 Jun 2026	51,394.285	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Tier 1 capital — excluded from ordinary equity	30 Jun 2026	7,937.5	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Ordinary shareholders’ book equity	30 Jun 2026	43,456.785	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Issued ordinary shares, including treasuryIssued-share convention, not the historical weighted-average EPS denominator. Treasury shares remain included; future awards and dilution are not forecast separately.	30 Jun 2026	2,500	m shares	Page 36 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The 10.5% required return is an editable illustration, not a measured cost of equity. Terminal return starts at the same 10.5%, so the default does not assume permanent excess returns. Initial book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5% and the ten-year fade are scenario choices, not company guidance or analyst consensus.
The comparative FVOCI valuation correction in H1 note 24 changes reserves, not the earnings used here. The current report’s H1 2025 net profit is retained.
The model deducts Tier 1 costs recorded in equity. The rounded EPS and treasury-share wording do not independently reproduce that basis exactly; no balancing deduction or reverse-engineered share count is introduced. Trading gains, credit costs and zakat are not fully normalized.
Recognized trailing Tier 1 costs are not a forecast of full-year future coupons. Issuances, redemptions, resets and payment timing can change the ordinary earnings available to investors.
Accounting common equity is not regulatory CET1 or freely distributable cash. Statutory reserves and capital buffers can constrain distributions beyond the book-growth retention modeled here.
Deposits, lending and bank cash remain operating items: no industrial debt/cash enterprise-value bridge is applied. Future OCI, capital issuance, buybacks and share awards are not separately projected.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.