TASI · 8210

BUPA ARABIA

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Insurance equity DCF

Models Bupa Arabia’s shareholder earnings after zakat and tax, less retained capital. It starts from signed accounting equity and does not treat insurance investments as spare cash.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: reported TTM shareholder profit of SAR 1,106.682m, less the FY2025 prior-year zakat credit of SAR 33.580m = SAR 1,073.102m. This is a single disclosed adjustment, not fully normalized profit. June accounting equity is SAR 5,624.462m.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

SAR 1,073.102m adjusted TTM shareholder earnings / SAR 5,624.462m closing accounting equity. Not average-equity ROE. The exact SAR 33.580m prior-year zakat credit is removed; no rounded narrative figure or invented tax adjustment is substituted.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE47.94 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE34.54%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings827.69M SARModeled shareholder cash647.76M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · -22.87%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM · ZAKAT CREDIT ADJUSTED · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows4,707.78

PV of terminal value2,483.96

Common equity value7,191.75

Shares, millions150

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	1,073.1	168.73	904.37	0.8969	811.09
2028-06-30	1,056.51	170.58	885.93	0.8044	712.61
2029-06-30	1,037.39	172.29	865.11	0.7214	624.09
2030-06-30	1,015.69	173.86	841.83	0.6470	544.66
2031-06-30	991.33	175.28	816.05	0.5803	473.53
2032-06-30	964.25	176.54	787.71	0.5204	409.94
2033-06-30	934.4	177.65	756.75	0.4667	353.21
2034-06-30	901.72	178.58	723.14	0.4186	302.71
2035-06-30	866.17	179.35	686.82	0.3754	257.85
2036-06-30	827.69	179.93	647.76	0.3367	218.1

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Accounting common equity5,624.4618,013.701 assets − 12,389.239 liabilities

Reported TTM shareholder earnings1,106.681,079.092 + 694.075 − 666.485

Earnings anchor after prior-year zakat credit1,073.11,106.682 − 33.580; no other earnings normalization

Initial return on closing common book (%)19.081,073.102 ÷ 5,624.462 × 100

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Net income attributable to shareholders	FY2025	1,079.092	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Net income attributable to shareholders	H1 2026	694.075	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative shareholder net income	H1 2025 comparative	666.485	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Accounting equity — signed balance sheetAssets 18,013.701 less liabilities 12,389.239. The signed balance sheet has no non-controlling-interest line. Separately allocated Saudi/foreign shareholder equity in note 15 uses zakat/tax/reimbursement adjustments; it is not substituted for accounting equity or treated as a minority interest.	30 Jun 2026	5,624.462	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Prior-year zakat credit — removed from earnings anchorCurrent-year zakat 88.195 less prior-year credit 33.580 equals the income-statement charge 54.615. Use the exact table amount, not rounded narrative amounts. H1 note 14 (page 30) corroborates the FY movement.	FY2025	33.58	SAR m	Page 55 ↗
Issued ordinary shares including treasury150 million issued shares at SAR 10 par. This consistent issued-share denominator includes treasury shares; it is not the weighted EPS denominator.	30 Jun 2026	150	m shares	Page 31 ↗
Treasury shares — context, not a second deductionAlready reflected in accounting equity; the model uses the conservative issued-share convention rather than mixing weighted EPS and period-end share counts.	30 Jun 2026	1.84	m shares	Page 32 ↗
Approved dividend already deducted from equitySAR 4 per issued share, recorded under accrued and other liabilities. Do not add it again to the June shareholder value.	Approved 30 Jun 2026	600	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Statutory reserve	30 Jun 2026	1,500	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Insurance service result	H1 2026	605.078	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Investment income	H1 2026	412.264	SAR m	Page 5 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Initial book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5%, a 10-year horizon and an 11.5% required equity return are editable scenario choices, not guidance, analyst consensus or a measured market rate. Terminal book return fades to the same required return, without assuming perpetual excess profitability.
Only the exact SAR 33.580m historical zakat credit is removed from TTM shareholder earnings. Claim development, medical inflation, underwriting margins, investment gains and credit-loss movements are not independently normalized. Future tax and zakat allocation may differ.
The model uses the signed accounting equity of SAR 5,624.462m. The Exchange announcement also gives a different shareholder allocation, while saying there is no minority interest. The exact difference is not independently reconciled; it is not invented as negative minority equity or mixed into this accounting-book model.
Insurance investments and liabilities remain within shareholder earnings and equity. There is no industrial cash/debt bridge. Accounting equity is not freely distributable solvency surplus; regulatory capital depends on minimum, premium and claims requirements described in H1 note 17 (page 32). The model does not forecast those requirements separately.
Forecast shareholder cash is earnings less modeled capital retention, not a declared dividend or guaranteed cash distribution. Future OCI, reserve adjustments, acquisitions, capital issues and employee-share dilution are not scheduled separately. The residual-income check verifies arithmetic under clean-surplus assumptions, not economic accuracy.
The SAR 600m approved dividend is already reflected in June equity and liabilities; it is not added again. The denominator is 150m issued shares, including treasury, not weighted EPS shares. A later market-price comparison must match dates, share counts and dividend entitlement.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.