TASI · 8240

CHUBB

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Insurance equity DCF

Models Chubb Arabia’s shareholder earnings after zakat and tax, less capital retained for growth. The starting scenario holds book return at its reported trailing earnings level, without assuming a recovery to the required return.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: FY2025 SAR 10.616871m + H1 2026 SAR 3.905586m − H1 2025 SAR 3.972023m = SAR 10.550434m for the trailing 12 months. June equity is SAR 479.826276m, including goodwill. Growth and profitability remain editable scenario assumptions, not analyst forecasts.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative 1% book growth is below the roughly 2.199% starting return, so the model does not require external equity to fund growth. It is not company guidance or an independently forecast regulatory-capital requirement. Higher growth at a below-required return may reduce value.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Reported trailing profit of SAR 10.550434m / closing equity of SAR 479.826276m. Not reported ROE on average equity and not normalized earnings. Investment gains, tax and reserve development remain in profit.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

The starting terminal return equals the trailing-profit / closing-book reference, about 2.199%. There is no assumed recovery to the illustrative 11.5% required return. A different long-run return needs a supported underwriting and investment case.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative perpetual book growth of 1%, below both the terminal book return and the 11.5% required return. It is not a forecast of premiums, inflation or dividends.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE1.37 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE37.19%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings11.54M SARModeled shareholder cash6.29M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 9.37%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM · REPORTED SHAREHOLDER PROFIT · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows34.41

PV of terminal value20.38

Common equity value54.78

Shares, millions40

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

What could change this result?

Some forecast years earn less than your required equity return. In this scenario, retaining more capital for growth can reduce modeled value.

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	0.00%	0.50%	1.00%	1.50%	2.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	10.55	4.8	5.75	0.8969	5.16
2028-06-30	10.66	4.85	5.81	0.8044	4.67
2029-06-30	10.76	4.89	5.87	0.7214	4.23
2030-06-30	10.87	4.94	5.93	0.6470	3.83
2031-06-30	10.98	4.99	5.99	0.5803	3.47
2032-06-30	11.09	5.04	6.05	0.5204	3.15
2033-06-30	11.2	5.09	6.11	0.4667	2.85
2034-06-30	11.31	5.14	6.17	0.4186	2.58
2035-06-30	11.42	5.2	6.23	0.3754	2.34
2036-06-30	11.54	5.25	6.29	0.3367	2.12

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Accounting common equity479.83763.650919 − 283.824643

Reported TTM shareholder earnings10.5510.616871 + 3.905586 − 3.972023

Initial and terminal book return (%)2.210.550434 ÷ 479.826276 × 100

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Net profit attributable to shareholders	FY2025	10.617	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Shareholder profit for six months	H1 2026	3.906	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative six-month shareholder profit	H1 2025 comparative	3.972	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Closing accounting equityAssets 763.650919 less liabilities 283.824643. No non-controlling-interest line is reported. This includes goodwill of 43.774750; it is not tangible equity.	30 Jun 2026	479.826	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary sharesSAR 400m capital. The October 2025 bonus issue moved SAR 52m retained earnings and SAR 48m statutory reserve to capital, not new cash.	30 Jun 2026	40	m shares	Page 23 ↗
Zakat and income-tax charge retained in earningsZakat 5.532898 + current tax 1.243549 − deferred-tax credit 0.191289. No exceptional tax reversal is invented or added back.	FY2025	6.585	SAR m	Page 79 ↗
Six-month zakat and income-tax chargeZakat 3.075742 + current tax 0.306291 + deferred tax 0.159443. The Q2-only tax credit is not substituted for six-month tax expense.	H1 2026	3.541	SAR m	Page 45 ↗
Statutory reserve — restricted distributionH1 note 20 on PDF page 46 requires profit transfers and states the reserve is unavailable for distribution until liquidation.	30 Jun 2026	3.994	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Restricted statutory deposit10% of paid-up capital; withdrawal requires the regulator’s consent. Not extra cash added to book-based value.	30 Jun 2026	40	SAR m	Page 19 ↗
Net insurance service result	H1 2026	8.613	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Net investment income	H1 2026	9.889	SAR m	Page 5 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The 1% book growth, 1% terminal growth, 10-year horizon and 11.5% equity discount rate are editable scenario choices, not company guidance, analyst consensus or a measured cost of equity. Initial and terminal returns remain at the reported trailing-profit / closing-book reference; no profitability recovery is assumed.
Reported earnings are not normalized. Investment income, fair-value movements, claim development and reinsurance affect profit. The net insurance-service result is not total shareholder earnings. Goodwill remains in accounting equity; the model is not a tangible-book valuation.
Accounting equity is not freely distributable capital. Statutory deposits and reserves are restricted. H1 note 21 (PDF page 47) confirms minimum solvency compliance at 30 June 2026 but does not quantify spare capital; the model does not independently project regulatory buffers or claim stress.
Tax expenses remain in the earnings anchor. The H1 dispute note describes the 2022 appeal hearing outcome with a formal decision still awaited and management’s view that provisions are sufficient. This does not prove zero tax risk, and the original assessment is not deducted a second time from book.
Shareholder cash equals modeled earnings less retained capital, not a declared dividend. The model assumes clean-surplus accounting and does not independently forecast future OCI, capital issues, acquisitions or distributions from restricted reserves. The residual-income check verifies arithmetic, not the forecast’s likelihood.
Uses 40m issued shares after the October 2025 bonus issue. Equity and share count are dated 30 June 2026. The H1 statements were approved on 4 August 2026; their subsequent-events note does not verify later events. Geopolitical uncertainty is disclosed without inventing a quantified loss. Later market-price comparisons require a matching-date capital and entitlement review.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.