TASI · 7203

Elm

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Operating cash-flow DCF

Values consolidated operations from trailing revenue and operating profit, then adds dated financial assets and deducts financing and other ownership claims. The Sahel acquisition gain is outside operating profit and is not forecast as recurring income.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

TTM to 30 June 2026: FY2025 + H1 2026 − H1 2025. Uses consolidated operating profit, not net profit including the SAR 59.1m acquisition gain. The old zakat reversal cancels between FY2025 and H1 2025; no second add-back. This is a reported operating benchmark, not fully normalized earnings or a pro-forma acquisition forecast.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial revenue growth%

Why this number?

Starts at an illustrative 5% revenue growth, fading to terminal growth. Not Elm guidance, acquired-company pro forma growth or analyst consensus.

Operating margin%

Why this number?

2,183.507861 / 10,339.772913 × 100. Includes operating depreciation, amortization, credit losses and employee share expense. Held constant in this scenario; nonoperating deposit income and acquisition gains are not included.

Tax on operating profit%

Why this number?

140.249411 / 2,311.435751 × 100: reported TTM zakat expense / pretax profit. The H1 2025 credit is subtracted with its negative sign. This effective benchmark is applied to operating profit; it is not a statutory zakat rate or a forecast of the zakat base. Nonoperating income affects the historical denominator.

Initial return on new capital%

Why this number?

Illustrative 20% incremental return, fading to 12%. Reinvestment equals the increase in modeled after-zakat operating profit divided by this return. It represents net capital needs, not a reported ROIC or a separate receivables, capex and lease schedule.

Terminal return on new capital%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Discount rate · WACC%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE301.45 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE48.84%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTRevenue14.94B SARFree cash flow to firm2.36B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Revenue · 44.46%Free cash flow to firm · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows11,672.3

PV of terminal value11,144.35

Cash + investments (editable proxies)4,193.55

Debt + minority claims-2,894.04

Other adjustments0

Common equity value24,116.16

Shares, millions80

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	NOPAT	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	2,153.57	512.76	1,640.82	0.9050	1,484.9
2028-06-30	2,255.27	532.13	1,723.14	0.8190	1,411.22
2029-06-30	2,355.5	550.07	1,805.44	0.7412	1,338.12
2030-06-30	2,453.65	566.23	1,887.42	0.6707	1,265.96
2031-06-30	2,549.07	580.25	1,968.81	0.6070	1,195.07
2032-06-30	2,641.12	591.75	2,049.37	0.5493	1,125.76
2033-06-30	2,729.15	600.25	2,128.9	0.4971	1,058.33
2034-06-30	2,812.55	605.26	2,207.29	0.4499	993.03
2035-06-30	2,890.67	606.15	2,284.52	0.4071	930.11
2036-06-30	2,962.94	602.22	2,360.72	0.3684	869.8

Formulas & reconciliation

Revenueₜ = Revenueₜ₋₁ × (1 + growthₜ). NOPATₜ = Revenueₜ × margin × (1 − tax). Reinvestmentₜ = (NOPATₜ − NOPATₜ₋₁) ÷ ROICₜ. FCFFₜ = NOPATₜ − reinvestmentₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = NOPATᴺ × (1 + g) − (NOPATᴺ × g ÷ terminal ROIC). Share value = (PV of FCFF + PV of terminal + cash + investments − debt − minority claims + other adjustments) ÷ shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

TTM revenue10,339.779,464.884988 + 4,997.083804 − 4,122.195879

TTM operating profit2,183.512,029.947228 + 1,138.089182 − 984.528549

Operating margin (%)21.122,183.507861 ÷ 10,339.772913 × 100

TTM effective zakat benchmark (%)6.07[45.710979 + 73.908667 − (−20.629765)] ÷ [2,136.035872 + 1,240.143757 − 1,064.743878] × 100

Additional financial investments2,618.91,916.239051 + 659.431483 + 43.229623

Financing and existing debt-like claims2,877.861,535.684161 + 601.650123 + 111.264196 + 625.893859 + 3.370000

TTM reported operating cash flow — not FCFF2,695.312,662.743206 + 409.151681 − 376.585915

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	FY2025	9,464.885	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Revenue	H1 2026	4,997.084	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Revenue	H1 2025 comparative	4,122.196	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Operating profit	FY2025	2,029.947	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Operating profit	H1 2026	1,138.089	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Operating profitUse the latest comparative. Expense reclassifications in note 23 do not change total operating profit.	H1 2025 comparative	984.529	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Net zakat expense	FY2025	45.711	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Zakat expense	H1 2026	73.909	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Net zakat credit — negative expense	H1 2025 comparative	-20.63	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Profit before zakat	FY2025	2,136.036	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Profit before zakat	H1 2026	1,240.144	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Profit before zakat	H1 2025 comparative	1,064.744	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Prior-assessment zakat reversalH1 charge 48.764004 less reversal 69.393769 = credit 20.629765. FY note 33, PDF page 50, includes the same reversal. It cancels in TTM arithmetic.	Q2 2025; also included in FY2025	69.394	SAR m	Page 19 ↗
Cash and cash equivalents673.077003 at banks + 901.571454 short Murabaha deposits. Client-agent balances of SAR 16.1bn are not recognized as group assets.	30 Jun 2026	1,574.648	SAR m	Page 15 ↗
Murabaha deposits over three monthsSeparate from cash equivalents; note 12, page 15 says all mature within one year.	30 Jun 2026	1,916.239	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Other financial assets415.435946 money-market funds + 3.117867 venture fund + 15.251143 share advance + 5.625 future equity + 26.8 call option + 193.201527 unquoted FVOCI. Carrying values, not independently valued investments.	30 Jun 2026	659.431	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Associates and joint venturesSahel is now consolidated; its previous interest was derecognized. Do not add the 59.1 gain or provisional goodwill to this balance.	30 Jun 2026	43.23	SAR m	Page 13 ↗
Borrowings including accrued financing cost	30 Jun 2026	1,535.684	SAR m	Page 16 ↗
Non-current lease liabilities	30 Jun 2026	601.65	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Current lease liabilities	30 Jun 2026	111.264	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Recorded end-of-service obligationDeducted as an existing debt-like claim. Future service expense remains in operating costs; no second forecast deduction for settlement of this opening obligation.	30 Jun 2026	625.894	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Contingent acquisition considerationJune fair-value liability, not the maximum SAR 31m earn-out. The acquisition-date 3.32 increased by 0.05 (note 24, page 23).	30 Jun 2026	3.37	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Non-controlling equityClosing carrying value used as an editable minority-claim proxy, not Sahel’s acquisition-date NCI of 19.126937 or a claim on 40% of the whole group.	30 Jun 2026	16.181	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Issued ordinary shares including treasury80,000,000 issued shares. H1 page 17 weighted basic 77.916859m / diluted 77.990986m are separate EPS measures.	31 Dec 2025; capital unchanged at 30 Jun 2026	80	m shares	Page 46 ↗
Acquisition remeasurement gain — outside operating profitPrevious 30% Sahel interest remeasured on acquisition of control. Not an operating-profit add-back or a recurring forecast.	H1 2026	59.1	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Operating cash flow — historical context	FY2025	2,662.743	SAR m	Page 12 ↗
Operating cash flow — historical contextIncludes deposit-income receipts and working-capital movements. Not unlevered free cash flow, not annualized by multiplying the half-year by two.	H1 2026	409.152	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Operating cash flow — comparative context	H1 2025 comparative	376.586	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Employee share-based expense retained in costs	H1 2026	35.027	SAR m	Page 16 ↗

Edit the enterprise-to-equity bridge

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Cash · SAR mInvestments · SAR mBorrowings incl. leases · SAR mMinority claims · SAR mOther net adjustments · SAR m

Model boundaries

The 5% starting revenue growth, 10.5% discount rate, 20% initial and 12% terminal incremental capital returns, 2.5% terminal growth and 10-year horizon are illustrative, editable scenarios. None is a verified WACC, company forecast or analyst consensus.
Operating margin is based on reported TTM figures and stays constant in the scenario. Credit losses, impairments, depreciation, acquisition-related amortization and share-based employee costs remain included. No unsupported normalized earnings or automatic acquisition synergies are supplied.
The effective zakat benchmark is not a statutory percentage of operating profit. The prior SAR 69.393769m reversal cancels between FY2025 and H1 2025. Pretax income still includes nonoperating items; no separate tax benefit on the acquisition gain is invented. Future zakat-base changes can materially change cash taxes.
Reinvestment is an incremental-capital model, not a detailed capex, collections, deferred-revenue or lease forecast. Maintenance investment is implicitly netted against depreciation; growth investment includes new operating and leased capital. Leases are financing claims, with no second lease-principal deduction. Historical CFO includes deposit receipts and seasonal working capital and must not be substituted directly for FCFF.
The Thiqah common-control purchase was charged to retained earnings, not recurring operating profit. Its acquisition-date correction of SAR 311.448596m is already reflected in the latest comparative equity. Sahel was consolidated effective 31 January 2026; TTM is reported history, not a full-year pro forma for both acquisitions. Purchase-price allocation remains provisional.
The equity bridge uses dated carrying values for investments, minority interests and existing employee and acquisition claims. These are not independently assessed market values. Client-agent money is off balance sheet and excluded already; the old Thiqah cash restriction had ended by December 2025. Not all recorded cash is necessarily surplus to operations. Do not add goodwill or deduct old restricted cash again.
Issued shares include treasury under the stated conservative convention; they are not the reported diluted EPS denominator. Future issuance, share awards and repurchases are not separately projected. The SAR 390m dividend approved on 30 July 2026 is a later event, not an extra June liability or a September-price adjustment.
FY2025 received an unmodified audit opinion on 5 March 2026; H1 2026 received an unmodified limited-review conclusion on 5 August. This review does not verify later market prices or every subsequent event. The model is a scenario at 30 June, not a live target price or a guarantee of investment value.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.