TASI · 8280

LIVA

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Insurance equity DCF

Models LIVA’s shareholder earnings after zakat, less capital retained for growth. The starting scenario holds return on book at its reported TTM level; it does not assume an unsupported recovery in profitability.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: FY2025 profit of SAR 26.640m + H1 2026 SAR 16.487m − H1 2025 SAR 5.257m = SAR 37.870m for the trailing 12 months. June equity is SAR 495.165m. The starting scenario holds the resulting book return below the illustrative required equity return.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

SAR 37.870m reported TTM profit / SAR 495.165m closing equity. Not ROE on average equity and not normalized profit. The same rate is used as the starting terminal return; no automatic recovery to the required return is assumed.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Held at the TTM earnings / closing-book reference in this starting scenario, below the illustrative 11.5% equity discount rate. Change it only with a justified view of underwriting and investment returns.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE6.98 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE44.78%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings48.46M SARModeled shareholder cash32.62M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 27.96%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM · REPORTED SHAREHOLDER PROFIT · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows154.25

PV of terminal value125.09

Common equity value279.34

Shares, millions40

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

What could change this result?

Some forecast years earn less than your required equity return. In this scenario, retaining more capital for growth can reduce modeled value.

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	37.87	14.85	23.02	0.8969	20.64
2028-06-30	39.01	15.02	23.99	0.8044	19.3
2029-06-30	40.15	15.17	24.99	0.7214	18.03
2030-06-30	41.31	15.31	26.01	0.6470	16.83
2031-06-30	42.49	15.43	27.05	0.5803	15.7
2032-06-30	43.67	15.54	28.12	0.5204	14.64
2033-06-30	44.85	15.64	29.21	0.4667	13.64
2034-06-30	46.05	15.72	30.33	0.4186	12.7
2035-06-30	47.25	15.79	31.46	0.3754	11.81
2036-06-30	48.46	15.84	32.62	0.3367	10.98

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Accounting common equity495.171,179.495 − 684.330

Reported TTM shareholder earnings37.8726.640 + 16.487 − 5.257

Initial and terminal book return (%)7.6537.870 ÷ 495.165 × 100

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Net profit attributable to shareholders	FY2025	26.64	SAR m	Page 10 ↗
Profit for the six-month period	H1 2026	16.487	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative six-month profit	H1 2025 comparative	5.257	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Closing accounting equityAssets of 1,179.495 less liabilities of 684.330. No non-controlling-interest line is reported.	30 Jun 2026	495.165	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued and paid-up ordinary sharesSAR 400m share capital, 40m shares at SAR 10 each; unchanged from December 2025.	30 Jun 2026	40	m shares	Page 31 ↗
Current-year zakat expense retained in earningsThe disclosed SAR 38.90m assessment settlement is not assumed to be a new FY2025 income-statement charge or reversal. The provision movement shows the current charge separately from payments.	FY2025	4.092	SAR m	Page 48 ↗
Zakat expense retained in earnings	H1 2026	2.6	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Statutory reserve — restricted distributionFY2025 note 16 (PDF page 49) requires annual transfers and says the reserve is unavailable for distribution until liquidation.	30 Jun 2026	1.161	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Required statutory deposit principalRestricted regulatory deposit; not extra cash added on top of accounting equity. The balance-sheet deposit includes accrued income.	30 Jun 2026	40	SAR m	Page 30 ↗
Net insurance service result	H1 2026	8.522	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Net investment income	H1 2026	21.192	SAR m	Page 5 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5%, a 10-year horizon and an 11.5% equity discount rate are editable scenario choices, not guidance, analyst consensus or a measured market rate. The starting terminal return is held at the reported TTM/closing-book reference, below that required return; no unproven recovery is assumed.
Reported earnings are not normalized. Investment income is an important part of profit; underwriting, insurance-pool results, claim development and fair-value movements can change. The H1 net insurance-service result of SAR 8.522m is not the same as total shareholder profit.
The FY2025 tax note describes a SAR 38.90m assessment settlement for 2009–2020, but that is not invented as a new charge or reversal in FY2025 earnings. Current zakat charges remain in the TTM anchor. The H1 note says 2021–2025 assessments are under review; no final assessment had been issued to management’s knowledge.
Accounting equity is not freely distributable regulatory surplus. Statutory reserves and deposits are restricted. Cash, deposits, Najm investments and other financial assets are not added again on top of book-based shareholder value. The discount-rate assumptions disclosed for the Najm investment are not used as LIVA’s cost of equity.
Forecast cash is theoretical earnings less capital retained, not a promised dividend. The model does not independently schedule regulatory capital, claims stress, reinsurance, future OCI or capital issues. The residual-income check verifies arithmetic under clean-surplus assumptions, not the probability of achieving the forecast.
The model uses 40m issued shares and accounting equity at 30 June 2026. The H1 report was approved on 30 July 2026; its subsequent-events statement does not verify events after that approval date. Any later market-price comparison needs a date-matched capital and entitlement review.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.