TASI · 7020

Mobily

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Operating cash-flow DCF

Models Mobily’s operating profit and capital needed for growth. Borrowings, leases and unpaid spectrum licences are deducted separately; restricted cash is not added as spare cash.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Starting basis: reported FY2025 + H1 2026 − H1 2025 operating results, with the 30 June 2026 balance sheet. Provision reversals remain in operating profit; this is not fully normalized earnings.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial revenue growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Operating margin%

Why this number?

TTM operating profit / revenue. Joint-venture profit, finance income and separately reported grant income are below operating profit and excluded. Provision reversals remain included. Margin is held constant, not forecast from company guidance.

Tax on operating profit%

Why this number?

TTM zakat and income-tax expense / pretax profit, applied to modeled operating profit as a proxy. Zakat is not simply a tax on operating profit; this is neither the statutory marginal rate nor a cash-tax forecast.

Initial return on new capital%

Why this number?

Illustrative capital productivity: incremental NOPAT / new invested capital. A 20% return needs SAR 5 of capital for SAR 1 of additional annual NOPAT.

Terminal return on new capital%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Discount rate · WACC%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE46.43 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE48.55%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTRevenue26.44B SARFree cash flow to firm3.94B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Revenue · 31.16%Free cash flow to firm · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows21,982.71

PV of terminal value20,741.83

Cash + investments (editable proxies)3,347.41

Debt + minority claims-10,320

Other adjustments0

Common equity value35,751.95

Shares, millions770

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	NOPAT	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	4,088.44	793.87	3,294.57	0.9091	2,995.06
2028-06-30	4,208.82	833.41	3,375.41	0.8264	2,789.59
2029-06-30	4,330.41	875.43	3,454.98	0.7513	2,595.77
2030-06-30	4,453.11	920.21	3,532.89	0.6830	2,413.01
2031-06-30	4,576.8	968.07	3,608.74	0.6209	2,240.74
2032-06-30	4,701.39	1,019.38	3,682.01	0.5645	2,078.4
2033-06-30	4,826.76	1,074.6	3,752.16	0.5132	1,925.45
2034-06-30	4,952.8	1,134.29	3,818.51	0.4665	1,781.36
2035-06-30	5,079.37	1,199.1	3,880.27	0.4241	1,645.61
2036-06-30	5,206.35	1,269.84	3,936.51	0.3855	1,517.69

Formulas & reconciliation

Revenueₜ = Revenueₜ₋₁ × (1 + growthₜ). NOPATₜ = Revenueₜ × margin × (1 − tax). Reinvestmentₜ = (NOPATₜ − NOPATₜ₋₁) ÷ ROICₜ. FCFFₜ = NOPATₜ − reinvestmentₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = NOPATᴺ × (1 + g) − (NOPATᴺ × g ÷ terminal ROIC). Share value = (PV of FCFF + PV of terminal + cash + investments − debt − minority claims + other adjustments) ÷ shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

TTM revenue20,155.4819,641.705 + 10,119.669 − 9,605.895

TTM operating profit4,071.993,847.018 + 1,966.242 − 1,741.269

Initial operating margin (%)20.2TTM operating profit ÷ TTM revenue × 100

Zakat and tax benchmark (%) — proxy2.52(89.971 + 47.914 − 43.493) ÷ (3,556.394 + 1,828.791 − 1,640.107) × 100

Debt-like claims including leases and spectrum10,3205,460.543 + 3,596.076 + 1,263.378

Cash and investment bridge — editable proxies3,347.412,878.187 + 342.600 + 1.585 + 125.040; restricted cash excluded

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	FY2025	19,641.705	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Revenue	H1 2026	10,119.669	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Revenue	H1 2025 comparative	9,605.895	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Operating profit	FY2025	3,847.018	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Operating profit	H1 2026	1,966.242	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Operating profit	H1 2025 comparative	1,741.269	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Zakat and income-tax expense	FY2025	89.971	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Zakat and income-tax expense	H1 2026	47.914	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Zakat and income-tax expense	H1 2025 comparative	43.493	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Profit before zakat and tax	FY2025	3,556.394	SAR m	Page 11 ↗
Profit before zakat and tax	H1 2026	1,828.791	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Profit before zakat and tax	H1 2025 comparative	1,640.107	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Cash and cash equivalents	30 Jun 2026	2,878.187	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Short-term Murabaha	30 Jun 2026	342.6	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Restricted cash — excluded from added cashReported separately from cash and cash equivalents; not added to the equity bridge.	30 Jun 2026	220.284	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
FVOCI investments	30 Jun 2026	1.585	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Joint ventures — carrying-value proxyTheir share of earnings is outside operating profit. Adding book value is a disclosed proxy, not a separately appraised market value.	30 Jun 2026	125.04	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Borrowings	30 Jun 2026	5,460.543	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Lease liabilities	30 Jun 2026	3,596.076	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Spectrum licence financial liabilityDebt-like claim in addition to borrowings and leases. Do not deduct all financial-and-other liabilities: those also include operating items.	30 Jun 2026	1,263.378	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Issued ordinary shares including treasuryUses 770 million issued shares, including 2.5 million treasury shares. The H1 dividend denominator is 767.5 million; it is not substituted into this diluted convention.	31 Dec 2025; capital unchanged at 30 Jun 2026	770	m shares	Page 15 ↗
Net cash from operating activitiesAlready after paid finance costs; this reported cash flow is context, not the model’s unlevered FCFF.	H1 2026	2,924.018	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Cash purchase of property and equipment	H1 2026	1,710.779	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Cash purchase of intangible assets	H1 2026	198.453	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Lease principal paid	H1 2026	373.652	SAR m	Page 8 ↗

Edit the enterprise-to-equity bridge

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Cash · SAR mInvestments · SAR mBorrowings incl. leases · SAR mMinority claims · SAR mOther net adjustments · SAR m

Model boundaries

Initial growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5%, WACC of 10% and initial return on new capital of 15% are editable illustrations, not company guidance, analyst consensus or measured market rates. Terminal capital return fades to the same 10% as WACC, not a permanent excess return.
Reinvestment is incremental after-tax operating profit divided by the assumed return on new capital. Replacement spending is implicitly offset by depreciation; this is not a licence-by-licence, network-capex or working-capital schedule. New leases and licence investment must be included in the assumed capital productivity.
Reported operating profit retains provision reversals and is not fully normalized. Below-operating joint-venture earnings, finance income and separately presented grants are excluded from the operating forecast. Capital grants may still affect asset costs and future depreciation.
The expense-based zakat/tax ratio is a proxy applied to operating profit, not a statutory marginal cash-tax rate. Settlements, taxable bases and foreign tax mix can change it.
The bridge deducts borrowings, lease liabilities and the separately disclosed spectrum licence obligation once. Restricted cash is not added; not all unrestricted cash is necessarily distributable. Joint ventures use carrying value, not a separate market appraisal.
The June 2026 balance sheet predates the H1 dividend approved in July and paid in August. This reporting-date scenario is not directly comparable to a later ex-dividend price without rolling forward cash, liabilities and distributions. Issued shares include treasury shares; future dilution and acquisitions are not separately forecast.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.