TASI · 1010

RB

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Bank equity DCF

Uses ordinary shareholders’ book equity and trailing earnings after Tier 1 sukuk costs. Cash available to shareholders is modeled as earnings less capital retained for growth, with a residual-income cross-check.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Anchored to TTM ordinary earnings / closing common equity. This is not the reported ROE on average equity; it is the first forecast year’s editable return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE22.02 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE46.15%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings10.88B SARModeled shareholder cash8.61B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 9.14%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows47,438.1

PV of terminal value40,658.9

Common equity value88,097.01

Shares, millions4,000

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	9,968.14	2,699.92	7,268.22	0.9050	6,577.57
2028-06-30	10,150.96	2,690.92	7,460.04	0.8190	6,109.65
2029-06-30	10,315.9	2,672.59	7,643.31	0.7412	5,664.93
2030-06-30	10,461.76	2,644.65	7,817.11	0.6707	5,243.21
2031-06-30	10,587.39	2,606.87	7,980.52	0.6070	4,844.17
2032-06-30	10,691.75	2,559.08	8,132.67	0.5493	4,467.45
2033-06-30	10,773.9	2,501.16	8,272.74	0.4971	4,112.57
2034-06-30	10,833.01	2,433.07	8,399.93	0.4499	3,779.01
2035-06-30	10,868.35	2,354.83	8,513.51	0.4071	3,466.16
2036-06-30	10,879.33	2,266.53	8,612.8	0.3684	3,173.38

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

TTM ordinary earnings after Tier 1 costs9,968.14(10,410.951 − 565.215) + (5,262.567 − 319.052) − (5,082.627 − 261.513)

Common shareholders’ book equity67,49880,321.659 − 12,823.660; agrees to reported shareholders’ equity

Post-bonus issued shares (millions)4,0003,000 × (1 + 1/3); bonus issue approved 5 April 2026

Initial earnings / closing common book (%)14.779,968.137 ÷ 67,497.999 × 100; model anchor, not reported average-equity ROE

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Net income	FY2025	10,410.951	SAR m	Page 12 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk costs	FY2025	565.215	SAR m	Page 12 ↗
Net income	H1 2026	5,262.567	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk costs	H1 2026	319.052	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Net income	H1 2025 comparative	5,082.627	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk costsCost recognized in equity, not the slightly different cash-flow payment.	H1 2025 comparative	261.513	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Total equity including Tier 1 sukuk	30 Jun 2026	80,321.659	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Tier 1 sukuk — excluded from common book	30 Jun 2026	12,823.66	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Equity attributable to bank shareholders	30 Jun 2026	67,497.999	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary shares before bonus issue	31 Dec 2025	3,000	m shares	Page 58 ↗
Issued ordinary shares after bonus issue3,000m × 4/3 following the 5 April 2026 one-for-three bonus issue; includes treasury shares as a diluted convention, not the 3,983m weighted-average EPS denominator.	30 Jun 2026	4,000	m shares	Page 29 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Growth, discount rate and terminal return are editable illustrative assumptions, not Riyad Bank guidance, a measured cost of equity or analyst consensus.
TTM earnings deduct recognized Tier 1 sukuk costs. Trading gains, impairment cycles and zakat have not been individually normalized; this is a reported-earnings starting point.
Bank deposits and lending are operating items. Do not add bank cash or subtract deposits through an enterprise-value bridge.
Accounting book growth is not a forecast of risk-weighted assets or SAMA capital requirements. Regulatory buffers and future Tier 1 issuance may change distributable earnings.
The model assumes clean-surplus accounting. Future OCI, share awards, buybacks and capital changes are not separately projected. The April 2026 bonus issue is included in the four-billion issued-share denominator; historical EPS used a different basis.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.