TASI · 1060

SAB

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Bank equity DCF

Models ordinary shareholders’ earnings after Tier 1 profit payments, less capital retained for growth. Accounting common equity is the starting book value; a residual-income calculation independently reconciles the model arithmetic.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Anchored to TTM ordinary earnings / closing common equity. This is not the reported ROE on average equity; it is the first forecast year’s editable return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE36.04 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE47.5%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings9.64B SARModeled shareholder cash7.45B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 22.83%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows38,877.35

PV of terminal value35,168.61

Common equity value74,045.95

Shares, millions2,054.79

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	7,848.94	2,054.74	5,794.2	0.9050	5,243.62
2028-06-30	8,048.37	2,077.19	5,971.18	0.8190	4,890.3
2029-06-30	8,248.25	2,098.01	6,150.24	0.7412	4,558.33
2030-06-30	8,448.36	2,117.1	6,331.26	0.6707	4,246.6
2031-06-30	8,648.48	2,134.4	6,514.08	0.6070	3,954.05
2032-06-30	8,848.38	2,149.82	6,698.56	0.5493	3,679.66
2033-06-30	9,047.81	2,163.27	6,884.54	0.4971	3,422.46
2034-06-30	9,246.54	2,174.69	7,071.85	0.4499	3,181.52
2035-06-30	9,444.32	2,183.99	7,260.33	0.4071	2,955.94
2036-06-30	9,640.91	2,191.11	7,449.79	0.3684	2,744.87

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

TTM ordinary earnings after Tier 1 payments7,848.94(8,452.094 − 625.238) + (4,417.236 − 392.705) − (4,261.887 − 259.439)

Accounting common book equity68,491.3880,877.880 − 12,386.500; agrees to reported shareholders’ equity

Issued shares (millions)2,054.792,054,794,522 ÷ 1,000,000; treasury shares included as a diluted convention

Initial earnings / closing common book (%)11.467,848.939 ÷ 68,491.380 × 100; model anchor, not reported average-equity ROE

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Net income after zakat and income tax	FY2025	8,452.094	SAR m	Page 85 ↗
Tier 1 profit payments deducted in EPS	FY2025	625.238	SAR m	Page 85 ↗
Net income after zakat and income tax	H1 2026	4,417.236	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Tier 1 profit payments deducted in EPS	H1 2026	392.705	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Net income after zakat and income tax	H1 2025 comparative	4,261.887	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Tier 1 profit payments deducted in EPS	H1 2025 comparative	259.439	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Total equity including additional Tier 1	30 Jun 2026	80,877.88	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Additional Tier 1 — excluded from common book	30 Jun 2026	12,386.5	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Equity attributable to the Bank’s shareholders	30 Jun 2026	68,491.38	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary shares — fully diluted convention2,054,794,522 issued shares. H1 note 15 also identifies this exact count; the rounded 2,054,795-thousand EPS table is not used as a closing share count.	31 Dec 2025; capital unchanged at 30 Jun 2026	2,054.795	m shares	Page 72 ↗
CET1 regulatory capital — context, not model bookAccounting common equity and regulatory CET1 are different measures; the latter is not substituted into the accounting residual-income model.	30 Jun 2026	57,265.927	SAR m	Page 33 ↗
Comparative restatement to other reserves	30 Jun 2025 comparative	918.484	SAR m	Page 34 ↗
Comparative restatement to retained earnings	30 Jun 2025 comparative	242.086	SAR m	Page 34 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Growth, discount rate and terminal return are editable illustrative assumptions, not SAB guidance, a measured cost of equity or analyst consensus.
H1 note 23 (physical PDF page 34) restates comparative balance-sheet and equity figures. It says the H1 2025 income and OCI impact was insignificant and those income comparatives were not restated. The model uses the actual H1 2025 earnings comparator in the 2026 report.
This is a reported-earnings anchor after Tier 1 profit payments, not a fully normalized forecast. Trading gains, credit losses, zakat and tax effects have not been independently normalized.
Accounting common equity includes goodwill and other reserves. It is not regulatory CET1 or freely distributable cash; the statutory reserve is not currently distributable. Capital buffers may limit distributions beyond modeled book growth.
Bank lending, deposits and cash are operating items; no industrial enterprise-value debt/cash bridge is applied. Future OCI, share awards, Tier 1 issuance and buybacks are not separately projected.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.