TASI · 1030

SAIB

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Bank equity DCF

Uses management’s rounded earnings excluding the FY2025 land sale, updated with H1 results and reduced by Tier 1 costs. The model retains capital for growth and reconciles shareholder cash flows to residual income.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Anchored to TTM ordinary earnings / closing common equity. This is not the reported ROE on average equity; it is the first forecast year’s editable return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE13.34 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE51.22%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings2.37B SARModeled shareholder cash1.81B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 49.16%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows8,132.74

PV of terminal value8,540.23

Common equity value16,672.97

Shares, millions1,250

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

What could change this result?

Some forecast years earn less than your required equity return. In this scenario, retaining more capital for growth can reduce modeled value.

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	1,591.86	530.15	1,061.71	0.9050	960.82
2028-06-30	1,669.79	535.94	1,133.85	0.8190	928.6
2029-06-30	1,750.02	541.32	1,208.71	0.7412	895.85
2030-06-30	1,832.54	546.24	1,286.3	0.6707	862.77
2031-06-30	1,917.33	550.71	1,366.63	0.6070	829.54
2032-06-30	2,004.37	554.68	1,449.69	0.5493	796.34
2033-06-30	2,093.63	558.15	1,535.48	0.4971	763.32
2034-06-30	2,185.09	561.1	1,623.99	0.4499	730.61
2035-06-30	2,278.7	563.5	1,715.2	0.4071	698.32
2036-06-30	2,374.42	565.34	1,809.08	0.3684	666.55

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Reported TTM ordinary earnings after recognized Tier 1 costs2,127.35(2,431.485 − 334.731) + (1,050.681 − 171.210) − (1,015.780 − 166.903)

Approximate adjusted TTM earnings — model anchor1,591.86(1,896.000 management-adjusted FY − 334.731) + 879.471 − 848.877; FY input is rounded

Ordinary shareholders’ book equity17,671.7424,834.241 − 7,162.500; agrees to reported ordinary equity

Initial earnings / closing common book (%)9.011,591.863 ÷ 17,671.741 × 100; model anchor, not reported average-equity ROE

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	FY2025	2,431.485	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Tier 1 costs recognized in equity	FY2025	334.731	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Profit attributable to bank shareholders	H1 2026	1,050.681	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Tier 1 costs recognized in equity	H1 2026	171.21	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Comparative profit attributable to shareholders	H1 2025 comparative	1,015.78	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Comparative Tier 1 costs	H1 2025 comparative	166.903	SAR m	Page 7 ↗
Total equity including Tier 1	30 Jun 2026	24,834.241	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Tier 1 capital — excluded from ordinary equity	30 Jun 2026	7,162.5	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Ordinary shareholders’ book equity	30 Jun 2026	17,671.741	SAR m	Page 3 ↗
Issued ordinary shares, including treasuryIssued-share convention, not the historical weighted-average EPS denominator. Treasury shares remain included; future awards and dilution are not forecast separately.	30 Jun 2026	1,250	m shares	Page 30 ↗
Management net income excluding land-sale gain — roundedManagement’s rounded measure, before the separate deduction of Tier 1 costs. It is not an exact audited subtotal or a complete normalization of earnings.	FY2025	1,896	SAR m	Page 16 ↗
One-off land-sale gain — rounded management disclosure	FY2025	535	SAR m	Page 16 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The 10.5% required return is an editable illustration, not a measured cost of equity. Terminal return starts at the same 10.5%, so the default does not assume permanent excess returns. Initial book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5% and the ten-year fade are scenario choices, not company guidance or analyst consensus.
The starting earnings use management’s rounded FY2025 net income excluding the land sale (SAR 1,896m), less Tier 1 costs, plus H1 2026 ordinary earnings less H1 2025 ordinary earnings. The result is approximate, not an exact audited normalized subtotal; no guessed tax effect is added.
The unadjusted TTM earnings remain visible for comparison. Other gains, credit costs, zakat and future Tier 1 costs are not fully normalized.
FY note 16 confirms 1,250m issued shares and SAR 10 par, although its opening sentence repeats the 2024 date. H1 2026 share capital remains SAR 12,500m. The issued-share convention is not the 1,248.342m weighted-average EPS denominator.
Recognized trailing Tier 1 costs are not a forecast of full-year future coupons. Issuances, redemptions, resets and payment timing can change the ordinary earnings available to investors.
Accounting common equity is not regulatory CET1 or freely distributable cash. Statutory reserves and capital buffers can constrain distributions beyond the book-growth retention modeled here.
Deposits, lending and bank cash remain operating items: no industrial debt/cash enterprise-value bridge is applied. Future OCI, capital issuance, buybacks and share awards are not separately projected.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.