TASI · 8200

SAUDI RE

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Reinsurance equity DCF

Starts from June accounting equity and audited FY2025 shareholder profit. Latest interim results remain visible, but the SAR 53.455186m surplus-provision reversal is not automatically repeated in the forecast.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: audited FY2025 profit of SAR 140.044427m, not TTM. Reported TTM profit is SAR 213.612325m and includes an H1 2026 surplus-provision reversal of SAR 53.455186m. Its separate tax effect is not disclosed, so no guessed after-tax normalization is used. June equity is SAR 2,358.564188m.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative 3% starting book growth, fading to 2.5%; not a premium forecast. Retention is a simplified accounting assumption, not a forecast of claims, required solvency capital or legally distributable profit.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Audited FY2025 profit of SAR 140.044427m / June 2026 book of SAR 2,358.564188m. An older annual earnings benchmark, not TTM, reported average-equity ROE or fully normalized earnings. The H1 surplus reversal is not used to lift the earnings anchor.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

The starting terminal return equals the annual-profit / closing-book benchmark. No automatic recovery to the illustrative 11.5% required return is assumed. A higher return needs a supported underwriting and investment case.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative perpetual nominal book growth of 2.5%, below the terminal return and the 11.5% discount rate. Not company guidance, inflation or dividend growth.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE5.15 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE45.52%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings179.21M SARModeled shareholder cash103.75M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 27.96%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

FY2025 · ANNUAL EARNINGS BASIS · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows476.23

PV of terminal value397.87

Common equity value874.1

Shares, millions169.81

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

What could change this result?

Some forecast years earn less than your required equity return. In this scenario, retaining more capital for growth can reduce modeled value.

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	140.04	70.76	69.29	0.8969	62.14
2028-06-30	144.25	71.53	72.72	0.8044	58.49
2029-06-30	148.49	72.25	76.25	0.7214	55
2030-06-30	152.78	72.9	79.88	0.6470	51.68
2031-06-30	157.11	73.5	83.61	0.5803	48.52
2032-06-30	161.48	74.03	87.44	0.5204	45.51
2033-06-30	165.87	74.49	91.38	0.4667	42.65
2034-06-30	170.29	74.89	95.41	0.4186	39.94
2035-06-30	174.74	75.21	99.53	0.3754	37.37
2036-06-30	179.21	75.45	103.75	0.3367	34.93

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

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Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Accounting common equity2,358.564,886.977476 − 2,528.413288

Reported TTM earnings — context, not default anchor213.61140.044427 + 161.560094 − 87.992196

Initial and terminal annual-profit / closing-book return (%)5.94140.044427 ÷ 2,358.564188 × 100

Outstanding shares used in reported EPS (millions)167.31169.810 issued − 2.500 treasury; model uses issued shares, not EPS denominator

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Audited annual shareholder profit — model earnings basisAfter zakat and income tax. Uses the primary company-wide profit also attributable to shareholders, not one of the supplementary operating-ledger columns. Not a normalized or trailing-period estimate.	FY2025	140.044	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Latest six-month shareholder profit	H1 2026	161.56	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative six-month shareholder profit	H1 2025 comparative	87.992	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Surplus-provision reversal included in interim profitNote 19: accumulated surplus provision at 31 March 2026 was reversed into other income. Separate zakat and tax effects are not given. Not an assumed recurring profit, after-tax adjustment or extra cash added to June book.	H1 2026	53.455	SAR m	Page 35 ↗
Total interim other income — includes the reversal	H1 2026	57.367	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Closing accounting equityAssets 4,886.977476 less liabilities 2,528.413288. No non-controlling-interest or issuer Tier 1 equity line is reported. The surplus reversal is already in retained earnings; do not subtract or add it again to book.	30 Jun 2026	2,358.564	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Issued ordinary shares including employee-plan treasury169,810,000 issued at SAR 10 par, including 2,500,000 treasury shares. Conservative issued-share convention, not the 167,310,000 outstanding/weighted EPS count in note 20. No later share count is asserted.	30 Jun 2026	169.81	m shares	Page 32 ↗
Treasury shares already deducted from equityCost remains deducted from June book; not deducted twice. Employee awards vest in Q1 2027 and Q1 2028 subject to conditions (note 21, page 35); full issuance is included in the model denominator without assuming vesting is certain.	30 Jun 2026	-25	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Restricted statutory depositWithdrawal needs Insurance Authority consent. Accrued commission of 4.267891 is matched by a payable to the Authority on page 4; neither creates an extra equity bridge.	30 Jun 2026	169.81	SAR m	Page 30 ↗
Restricted Funds at Lloyd’sCollateral for 2024–2026 Lloyd’s syndicate underwriting. Included in accounting assets, not freely distributable cash.	30 Jun 2026	205.973	SAR m	Page 30 ↗
Statutory reserveFY note 17, page 60 requires at least 20% of annual net income transferred until the reserve equals paid-up capital. The reserve is not distributable. Modeled cash is not an independently verified dividend ceiling.	30 Jun 2026	190.902	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Margin loan already included in liabilitiesAlready included in assets less liabilities. Not an additional enterprise-value debt deduction.	30 Jun 2026	56.797	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Annual zakat expense retained in earnings	FY2025	46.381	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Annual tax expense retained in earningsIncludes VAT assessment expense described on page 59. No tax add-back or hypothetical tax benefit on the H1 surplus reversal is assumed.	FY2025	4.21	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Latest net reinsurance service result	H1 2026	102.755	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Employee share-based expense retained in interim earnings	H1 2026	4.941	SAR m	Page 35 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The default uses audited FY2025 profit, an older annual reference, not reported TTM or fully normalized earnings. H1 2026 contains a SAR 53.455186m surplus-provision reversal; no separately disclosed after-tax effect was found. We do not multiply it by a guessed tax rate or repeat it automatically. Other investment returns, reserve movements and tax expenses remain in the annual benchmark.
Initial book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5%, a 10-year horizon and an 11.5% required return are editable scenario choices, not company guidance, analyst consensus or a measured equity cost. Initial and terminal returns use the same annual-profit / June-book benchmark; there is no automatic profitability recovery.
Accounting equity is not freely distributable capital. Restricted statutory deposits, the statutory reserve and Lloyd’s collateral stay inside book. The annual report’s SAR 200m minimum regulatory capital figure is dated 31 December 2025, not a June surplus or forecast. Claim stress, regulatory requirements and statutory-reserve transfers are not independently scheduled. Modeled shareholder cash is not legal dividend capacity.
Uses 169.810m issued shares including 2.500m employee-plan treasury, not the 167.310m reported EPS denominator. Treasury cost is already deducted from book. The 2025 bonus transfer did not create cash; employee-award vesting in 2027–2028 is conditional. No current market price or September share count is supplied.
The H1 reclassification note moves prior-year balances among other liabilities, reinsurance liabilities and retrocession assets without affecting equity, profit or cash flow. Original FY2025 statement figures remain unchanged; June book uses the latest primary statement. Supplemental operating ledgers are not minority interests.
H1 note 10 describes additional 2021–2022 zakat assessments as fully provided and a July 2026 committee outcome favoring ZATCA, with the written decision awaited and an appeal considered. No second deduction or unrecognized sukuk-tax refund is assumed. Tax proceedings do not establish zero future exposure.
On 13 July 2026 Saudi Re received approvals to acquire 24.82% of AdA Risk Holding (22.50% fully diluted) for GBP 8.95m, approximately SAR 45m. The report says recognition will be in Q3 accounts. June book and earnings do not include an invented acquisition contribution or a later pro-forma capital bridge.
H1 accounts were approved on 1 August and received an unmodified limited-review conclusion on 6 August 2026; FY2025 has an unmodified audit opinion. This does not verify every later event. Future OCI, reserve revisions and capital actions are not separately forecast. The residual-income check verifies arithmetic under clean-surplus assumptions, not a fair value or guaranteed distribution.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.