TASI · 8010

TAWUNIYA

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Insurance equity DCF

Models Tawuniya’s parent-shareholder earnings less capital retained for growth. Insurance investments and funding remain within common equity; they are not added or deducted as an industrial cash/debt bridge.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: reported TTM parent profit of SAR 983.853m, less the FY2025 prior-period zakat credit of SAR 12.893m = SAR 970.960m. Only that credit is adjusted; investment gains and credit-loss reversals remain. Common equity is dated 30 June 2026.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

SAR 970.960m adjusted TTM parent earnings / SAR 5,666.845m closing parent equity. This is a closing-book model input, not reported ROE on average equity. It excludes the SAR 12.893m prior-period zakat credit only; it is not fully normalized earnings.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE45.6 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE36.59%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings833.93M SARModeled shareholder cash652.64M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · -14.11%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM · ZAKAT CREDIT ADJUSTED · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows4,338

PV of terminal value2,502.68

Common equity value6,840.68

Shares, millions150

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	970.96	170.01	800.95	0.8969	718.34
2028-06-30	963.55	171.86	791.69	0.8044	636.8
2029-06-30	954.31	173.59	780.72	0.7214	563.21
2030-06-30	943.17	175.17	768.01	0.6470	496.9
2031-06-30	930.1	176.6	753.5	0.5803	437.23
2032-06-30	915.03	177.87	737.16	0.5204	383.63
2033-06-30	897.92	178.98	718.94	0.4667	335.56
2034-06-30	878.73	179.93	698.8	0.4186	292.52
2035-06-30	857.41	180.7	676.71	0.3754	254.06
2036-06-30	833.93	181.29	652.64	0.3367	219.75

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Parent common equity5,666.855,668.285 − 1.440

Reported TTM parent earnings983.851,103.114 + 609.848 − 729.109

Earnings anchor after prior-period zakat credit970.96983.853 − 12.893; no other earnings normalization

Initial return on closing parent book (%)17.13970.960 ÷ 5,666.845 × 100

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Profit after zakat	FY2025	1,103.114	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Profit attributable to parent shareholders	H1 2026	609.848	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Comparative parent profit	H1 2025 comparative	729.109	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Total equity including non-controlling interests	30 Jun 2026	5,668.285	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Non-controlling interests — excluded from parent book	30 Jun 2026	1.44	SAR m	Page 4 ↗
Prior-period zakat credit — removed from earnings anchorCurrent-year charge of 136.400 less this credit equals the reported net charge of 123.507. H1 2026 and H1 2025 show no prior-period adjustment in note 11 (H1 PDF page 73).	FY2025	12.893	SAR m	Page 91 ↗
Issued ordinary shares at the model dateUses the 150 million issued shares disclosed in note 12. The report describes a 50% bonus recommendation still awaiting shareholder approval; no later share adjustment is assumed.	30 Jun 2026	150	m shares	Page 74 ↗
Approved dividend already deducted from equitySAR 2 per issued share. This payable distribution is not added again to the June shareholder value.	Approved 28 Jun 2026	300	SAR m	Page 74 ↗
Statutory reserve — restricted distributionThe reserve is not available for shareholder distribution until liquidation. Accounting equity is not the same as free regulatory surplus.	30 Jun 2026	1,500	SAR m	Page 74 ↗
Expected-credit-loss reversal retained in reported profit	FY2025	130.747	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
Expected-credit-loss reversal retained in reported profit	H1 2026	57.146	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
FVPL investment gains retained in reported profit	FY2025	204.69	SAR m	Page 8 ↗
FVPL investment gains retained in reported profit	H1 2026	129.728	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Unprovided zakat exposure disclosed in the annual reportFY2025 note 28 discusses zakat on policyholder insurance-contract reserves. This is not a confirmed June 2026 liability or a probability-weighted present value. Default additional adjustment is zero, not a conclusion that the risk is zero.	31 Dec 2025 disclosure	175	SAR m	Page 91 ↗
Consideration for acquired controlling interestA 60% interest in Vehicle Maintenance Solution; provisional goodwill of SAR 22.5m. The TTM period spans a change in consolidation scope.	Control obtained 8 Jan 2026	25	SAR m	Page 73 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

Initial book growth of 3%, terminal growth of 2.5%, a 10-year horizon and an 11.5% required equity return are editable scenario choices, not company guidance, analyst estimates or a measured cost of equity. Terminal book return fades to the same 11.5%, assuming no perpetual excess return.
Only the exact FY2025 prior-period zakat credit is removed from reported TTM parent earnings. Investment gains and expected-credit-loss reversals remain. Reserve development, underwriting margins, acquisition effects and investment returns are not independently normalized or forecast.
Accounting parent equity is not eligible regulatory capital or a solvency surplus. The statutory reserve is restricted. Cash available in this retained-capital model is theoretical, not a declared dividend or guaranteed distributable cash; regulatory capital, claims and reinsurance stress are not separately scheduled.
FY2025 note 28 discloses SAR 175m of unprovided possible zakat exposure on policyholder reserves. The H1 note does not quantify an updated amount or settlement probability. The zero default extra adjustment does not dismiss the risk. An optional negative present-value adjustment can stress an additional cost; do not also deduct an already recorded provision or reduce recurring earnings for the same cost.
The January 2026 acquisition changes consolidation scope, so TTM earnings are not like-for-like. Clean-surplus accounting is assumed for forecasts; future OCI, acquisitions, capital issues and reserve changes can break the link between accounting profit, capital and distributions.
The June balance sheet already reflects the SAR 300m approved dividend. It is not added again. The model uses June issued shares, not an assumed later bonus count. A later market-price comparison requires rolling forward shares, capital and dividend entitlement to the same date.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.