TASI · 7030

Zain KSA

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Group equity DCF

An ordinary-shareholder model for Zain KSA and its financing business. It uses audited FY2025 earnings as a clearly dated reference, with June 2026 common equity; it does not turn H1 grant income into recurring profit.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Earnings basis: FY2025 parent profit, not TTM. H1 2026 includes SAR 112.474m of grant income and SAR 25.542m of grant offsets to operating costs. Their separate zakat effect is not disclosed, so no guessed after-tax adjustment is used.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

Adjust an assumption

Initial common-book growth%

Why this number?

Illustrative starting growth, fading linearly to terminal growth across the forecast. Not management guidance.

Initial return on common book%

Why this number?

Audited FY2025 parent profit of SAR 603.531m / June 2026 common book of SAR 10,825.518m. This is an older annual earnings reference, not TTM earnings, reported average-equity ROE or a fully normalized forecast. The default holds this return constant; it does not assume a recovery to the required return.

Terminal return on common book%

Why this number?

Illustrative long-run return. The model fades the starting return toward this value; no permanent advantage is assumed without showing it here.

Required equity return%

Why this number?

Your required return in nominal SAR. The default is an illustrative hurdle rate, not a measured market WACC, beta or analyst estimate.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE5.51 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE38.9%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTCommon earnings660.07M SARModeled shareholder cash541.68M SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Common earnings · 9.37%Modeled shareholder cash · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

FY2025 EARNINGS BASIS · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows3,025.98

PV of terminal value1,926.78

Common equity value4,952.76

Shares, millions898.73

✓ Reconciles to residual income within calculation precision

What could change this result?

Some forecast years earn less than your required equity return. In this scenario, retaining more capital for growth can reduce modeled value.

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	0.00%	0.50%	1.00%	1.50%	2.00%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	Common earnings	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	603.53	108.26	495.28	0.9009	446.19
2028-06-30	609.57	109.34	500.23	0.8116	406
2029-06-30	615.66	110.43	505.23	0.7312	369.42
2030-06-30	621.82	111.54	510.28	0.6587	336.14
2031-06-30	628.04	112.65	515.39	0.5935	305.86
2032-06-30	634.32	113.78	520.54	0.5346	278.3
2033-06-30	640.66	114.92	525.75	0.4817	253.23
2034-06-30	647.07	116.06	531	0.4339	230.42
2035-06-30	653.54	117.22	536.31	0.3909	209.66
2036-06-30	660.07	118.4	541.68	0.3522	190.77

Formulas & reconciliation

Earningsₜ = opening common equityₜ × ROEₜ. Retained capitalₜ = opening common equityₜ × growthₜ. Shareholder cashₜ = earningsₜ − retained capitalₜ. Closing common equityₜ = opening common equityₜ + retained capitalₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = closing common equityᴺ × (terminal ROE − g). Residual-income check = opening common equity + PV of (earnings − required return on opening equity) + PV of terminal residual income + one-time present-value adjustment. Share value = (PV of shareholder cash + PV of terminal cash + one-time present-value adjustment) / shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

June 2026 common shareholders’ equity10,825.5210,829.033 − 3.515

Reported TTM parent earnings — context only787.97603.531 + 404.574 − 220.137; includes H1 grant effects, not the default anchor

Annual earnings reference — FY2025603.53603.531 reported parent profit; no guessed after-zakat grant adjustment

Initial and terminal common-book return (%)5.58603.531 ÷ 10,825.518 × 100; held constant as an editable scenario

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Parent profit — annual earnings referenceAudited annual reference, not a TTM or fully normalized earnings estimate. Latest interim profits remain visible below.	FY2025	603.531	SAR m	Page 9 ↗
Parent profit — context, not default earnings anchor	H1 2026	404.574	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Comparative parent profit	H1 2025 comparative	220.137	SAR m	Page 6 ↗
Total equity including minority interests	30 Jun 2026	10,829.033	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Minority interests — excluded from common book	30 Jun 2026	3.515	SAR m	Page 5 ↗
Issued ordinary shares — exact count898,729,175 issued shares divided by one million. Do not replace this with the rounded EPS denominator of 898,729 thousand.	30 Jun 2026	898.729	m shares	Page 19 ↗
Government grant income below operating profit	H1 2026	112.474	SAR m	Page 26 ↗
Government grants offset against operating expenses	H1 2026	25.542	SAR m	Page 26 ↗
Government grants capitalized	H1 2026	212.972	SAR m	Page 26 ↗
Government grants capitalizedFY2025 note 38 shows no grant charged to profit or loss. Capitalized grants can nevertheless affect asset costs and later depreciation.	FY2025	309.378	SAR m	Page 66 ↗
Tamam financing receivables	30 Jun 2026	1,038.834	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Tamam segment profit	H1 2026	80.065	SAR m	Page 21 ↗
Dividend payableThe approved dividend is already deducted from common equity. It is not added again to this ex-declared-dividend shareholder value.	30 Jun 2026	449.374	SAR m	Page 5 ↗

One-time present-value adjustment

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Additional present-value adjustment · SAR m

Model boundaries

The default earnings anchor is audited FY2025 parent profit, not the latest TTM. H1 2026 reported profit includes grant income and operating-cost grant offsets. No disclosed standalone after-zakat adjustment is available, so the model does not subtract a guessed tax effect or automatically capitalize those grants.
FY2025 earnings are not fully normalized. Capitalized grants affect asset costs, and future financing margins, impairment, operating costs and reinvestment may differ. Latest TTM earnings are shown only for context; using the annual reference does not establish a fair value.
The 11% required equity return and 1% annual/terminal book growth are editable illustrations, not company guidance or market estimates. Initial and terminal returns start at the same annual-reference earnings/common-book ratio, without assuming a profitability recovery.
Tamam lending and its funding stay inside consolidated shareholder earnings and common book. No industrial cash/debt bridge or sum-of-parts value is applied; cash, debt and minority bridge controls are not used. Segment eliminations and regulated capital prevent treating finance cash as spare telecom cash.
Earnings less retained capital is not an announced dividend or guaranteed distributable cash. Debt service, network and spectrum investment, financing receivables and regulatory buffers are not forecast separately. Clean-surplus accounting is assumed; future OCI, acquisitions and capital issues may break that relationship.
June common equity is after the dividend approved on 30 June 2026. The pending dividend is not added again. Comparisons with a market price need the same date and dividend entitlement; no current market price or analyst consensus is supplied.

Model source review: 2026-09-06. Not investment advice.