TASI · 2222

Saudi Aramco

Discounted cash-flow valuation

EDITABLE, SOURCE-LINKED MODEL

Operating cash-flow DCF

Consolidated FCFF using operating profit after royalties, a tax assumption and explicit returns on new capital. Cash, investments, debt and minority claims form a separate equity bridge.

Valuation date2026-06-30Financials through H1 2026

Earnings basis & source figures

Reported trailing results through 30 June 2026, not normalized mid-cycle earnings. The first forecast year ends June 2027. Cash and debt include PRefChem amounts classified as held for sale; no unclosed sale proceeds are assumed.

Review figures and sources ↓

Growth presets change only initial growth relative to the starting assumptions and keep your other edits. Growth is capped by available funding; higher growth does not necessarily mean higher value.

ARAMCO / THE STARTING POINT

Earnings are not cash flow.

Read the cash-flow statement ↗

Operating cash flow499.2SAR bnTTM to June 2026

Capital expenditure192.0SAR bnTTM to June 2026

Operating cash less capex307.2SAR bnTTM to June 2026

Historical figures derived as FY2025 + H1 2026 − H1 2025—not the model’s FCFF. The model estimates tax and reinvestment from earnings; working capital, tax timing and capital spending can make actual cash flow different.

Where judgment matters

The starting 3% growth, 10% discount rate and 20% capital return fading to 12% are scenario assumptions, not reported figures or analyst consensus.
SAR 29.8bn of trailing impairment and remeasurement losses remains in the earnings anchor. No unsupported tax-adjusted earnings add-back is applied.
Incremental capital returns simplify the relationship between growth and reinvestment. This is not a field-by-field oil, reserve or project-capex forecast.
Investments and minority claims use carrying-value proxies. Including them in the bridge does not establish market values or distributable cash.

Stress one assumptionSelect to apply to your current inputs. These are stress tests, not probability-weighted forecasts.

Adjust an assumption

Initial revenue growth%

Why this number?

3% is a scenario choice, not Aramco guidance. It fades to 2.5%. Higher oil prices and lower volumes can move in opposite directions; this consolidated model does not forecast either separately.

Operating margin%

Why this number?

Starts at TTM operating income / revenue including sales-related income. Includes royalties; held constant in this scenario.

Tax on operating profit%

Why this number?

TTM tax and zakat / pre-tax income is applied to operating income as a proxy. H1 note 7 describes different 20% and 50% statutory rates. This is not a cash-tax or segment-specific forecast.

Initial return on new capital%

Why this number?

20% initial return on incremental capital is an explicit modeling assumption, fading to 12%. It determines net reinvestment; it does not substitute for a separately forecast capex, depreciation and working-capital schedule.

Terminal return on new capital%

Why this number?

12% long-run incremental return is an assumption, not a reported ROIC. Alongside 2.5% terminal growth it sets reinvestment. A perpetual model does not explicitly project reserve depletion, concession expiry or energy-transition demand.

Discount rate · WACC%

Why this number?

10% nominal SAR is an illustrative required return, not a measured WACC. No beta, market-risk premium or live capital weights are available here. Use sensitivity to test the rate instead of treating it as verified.

Terminal growth%

Why this number?

Perpetual nominal growth after the forecast. Must remain below the discount rate and be supportable by retained capital.

Forecast horizonyr

Why this number?

End-of-year discounting. The first forecast covers the 12 months after the reporting date; these are not calendar-year guidance figures.

Starting assumptions are editable, not published forecasts. Growth presets change initial growth by two percentage points within funding limits, without changing the discount rate or terminal return.

SCENARIO VALUE / SHARE18.44 SAR

At the reporting date—not a live price target or recommendation.

TERMINAL SHARE OF VALUE48.42%Stress-test long-term assumptions below

30 Jun 2036FORECASTRevenue incl. sales-related income2.39T SARFree cash flow to firm433.15B SAR

2026-06-30 — 2036-06-30Revenue incl. sales-related income · 31.16%Free cash flow to firm · —

Hover or tap · drag between periods to compareSAR

TTM TO JUN 2026 · The first point is the editable model anchor (derived from the selected earnings basis); hatched bars are forecasts. Hover, tap or use arrow keys to inspect. Drag across periods to compare. Projected cash flows are not announced distributions.

From cash flows to share value · SAR millions

PV of forecast cash flows2,430,769.72

PV of terminal value2,282,286.56

Cash + investments (editable proxies)348,179

Debt + minority claims-597,592

Other adjustments0

Common equity value4,463,643.28

Shares, millions242,000

Valuation sensitivity

Select a cell to apply its discount rate and terminal growth together.

SAR per share · discount rate × terminal growth
Discount / growth	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%

What does your reference price imply?

Your reference price (SAR)Price dateNo live price feed. A price dated after the model’s valuation date is not a same-date comparison.

Year-by-year forecast

SAR millions. Reinvestment funds growth; it is not an additional operating expense.

Year ending	NOPAT	Reinvestment	Cash flow	Discount factor	Present value
2027-06-30	426,911.26	62,171.54	364,739.72	0.9091	331,581.56
2028-06-30	439,481.43	65,774.12	373,707.31	0.8264	308,849.02
2029-06-30	452,177.56	69,673.89	382,503.67	0.7513	287,380.67
2030-06-30	464,989.26	73,913.64	391,075.62	0.6830	267,109.91
2031-06-30	477,905.63	78,545.48	399,360.14	0.6209	247,971.23
2032-06-30	490,915.28	83,633.48	407,281.79	0.5645	229,899.96
2033-06-30	504,006.35	89,257.32	414,749.03	0.5132	212,831.83
2034-06-30	517,166.52	95,517.33	421,649.19	0.4665	196,702.46
2035-06-30	530,383	102,541.64	427,841.36	0.4241	181,446.5
2036-06-30	543,642.57	110,496.46	433,146.11	0.3855	166,996.58

Formulas & reconciliation

Revenueₜ = Revenueₜ₋₁ × (1 + growthₜ). NOPATₜ = Revenueₜ × margin × (1 − tax). Reinvestmentₜ = (NOPATₜ − NOPATₜ₋₁) ÷ ROICₜ. FCFFₜ = NOPATₜ − reinvestmentₜ.

PVₜ = cash flowₜ ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᵗ. Terminal value = terminal cash flow ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). PV of terminal = terminal value ÷ (1 + discount rate)ᴺ.

Terminal cash = NOPATᴺ × (1 + g) − (NOPATᴺ × g ÷ terminal ROIC). Share value = (PV of FCFF + PV of terminal + cash + investments − debt − minority claims + other adjustments) ÷ shares.

↗

Analyst estimates

Published estimates

No verified numerical analyst forecast

Reviewed sources do not publish a numerical forward consensus for this company. DCF assumptions are shown separately and are not analyst estimates.

Every number, with its source

Reported inputs below are converted to SAR millions where needed. Page references are PDF page numbers.

Cash including PRefChem held-for-sale cash170,853167,387 + 3,466; no disposal proceeds

Investments at carrying value177,32674,802 + 40,434 + 48,646 + 13,444

Debt including PRefChem held-for-sale borrowings371,219308,365 + 46,871 + 15,983

TTM operating cash flow less capex — diagnostic, not modeled FCFF307,243(510,798 + 210,607 − 222,192) − (190,444 + 94,743 − 93,217)

TTM impairment losses retained in operating anchor29,81232,425 + 928 − 3,541; no unsupported tax-adjusted add-back

TTM revenue including sales-related income1,823,483FY2025 + H1 2026 − H1 2025

TTM operating income787,056706,822 + 438,687 − 358,453

TTM effective tax benchmark (%)47.34(352,650 + 192,127 − 174,198) ÷ (702,860 + 436,734 − 356,763) × 100

Reported input	Period	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue and other income related to sales	FY2025	1,671,204	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Revenue and other income related to sales	H1 2026	989,033	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Revenue and other income related to sales	H1 2025 comparative	836,754	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Operating income	FY2025	706,822	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Operating income	H1 2026	438,687	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Operating income	H1 2025 comparative	358,453	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Income taxes and zakat expense	FY2025	352,650	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Income taxes and zakat expense	H1 2026	192,127	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Income taxes and zakat expense	H1 2025 comparative	174,198	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Income before income taxes and zakat	FY2025	702,860	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Income before income taxes and zakat	H1 2026	436,734	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Income before income taxes and zakat	H1 2025 comparative	356,763	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Cash and cash equivalents	30 Jun 2026	167,387	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Joint ventures and associates	30 Jun 2026	74,802	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Non-current securities	30 Jun 2026	40,434	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Current securities	30 Jun 2026	48,646	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Non-current borrowings	30 Jun 2026	308,365	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Current borrowings	30 Jun 2026	46,871	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Non-controlling interests	30 Jun 2026	226,373	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
Issued shares (fully diluted convention)Uses all issued shares, including treasury shares; not weighted-average EPS shares.	Issued share capital	242,000	m shares	Page 19 ↗
Short-term investments	30 Jun 2026	13,444	SAR m	Page 29 ↗
PRefChem cash classified as held for saleAdded to cash separately; excluded from the balance-sheet cash line of 167,387.	30 Jun 2026	3,466	SAR m	Page 42 ↗
PRefChem borrowings classified as held for saleAdded to borrowing lines because the consolidated earnings anchor retains these operations. No disposal proceeds or earnings add-back are assumed.	30 Jun 2026	15,983	SAR m	Page 42 ↗
Operating cash flow	H1 2026	210,607	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Operating cash flow	H1 2025 comparative	222,192	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Capital expenditure	H1 2026	94,743	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Capital expenditure	H1 2025 comparative	93,217	SAR m	Page 31 ↗
Impairment and held-for-sale losses	FY2025	32,425	SAR m	Page 14 ↗
Impairment and held-for-sale losses	H1 2026	928	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Impairment and held-for-sale losses	H1 2025 comparative	3,541	SAR m	Page 27 ↗
Operating cash flow	FY2025	510,798	SAR m	Page 18 ↗
Capital expenditure	FY2025	190,444	SAR m	Page 18 ↗

Edit the enterprise-to-equity bridge

The source facts above never change. These are model overrides only. Enter an additional present-value cost as negative or asset as positive; it applies once, without changing recurring profit or book growth. Do not deduct an already recorded provision, liability or approved dividend again.

Cash · SAR mInvestments · SAR mBorrowings incl. leases · SAR mMinority claims · SAR mOther net adjustments · SAR m

Model boundaries

This is a consolidated scenario, not an oil-price, production-volume or segment-by-segment forecast. Royalties are already included in operating costs.
The effective tax rate is a starting benchmark, not a marginal cash-tax forecast. Tax mix, timing and downstream rates can differ.
Investments and minority interests use reported carrying values as editable proxies, not independently assessed market values. Cash is not all necessarily distributable.
The consolidated operating anchor retains held-for-sale operations and SAR 29,812m of TTM impairment/remeasurement losses. PRefChem cash and borrowings are included in the bridge. Disposal proceeds, post-sale earnings changes, pension deficits and transaction taxes are not separately valued. Do not add sale proceeds without removing the corresponding operations and claims.
Starting and terminal returns on new capital, growth and discount rates are illustrative assumptions—not company guidance or analyst consensus.

Model source review: 2026-09-07. Not investment advice.